Nuclear North Korea

” Writings on the Wall”

April, 2016     Moon J. Pak

(Senior Vice-President, Korean American National Coordinating Council)

With the testing of a hydrogen bomb early this year, January 6, 2016, followed by a successful launching of a missile that placed an orbital satellite, the North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, DPRK) has again demonstrated clearly that it has become one of the nuclear powers of the world. Their public exhibit of a miniaturized nuclear weapons system, followed by the announcement that they have succeeded in the war-head re-entry technology, clearly establishes their capability of an effective nuclear weapons system with delivery abilities both in medium range as well as in an intercontinental level.

The events triggered a harsh international outcry led by U.S., and the United Nations adopted a UN Security Council Resolution #2270 on March 2, 2016, which, at multiple levels, imposed a new series of harsh sanctions on the DPRK, on top of the existing ones. Obviously, it is too early to tell, but in view of the fact that this time, China, North Korea’s traditional ally and an important economic partner had also voted for the resolution, it’s effect could be serious on the country, negatively influencing its effort to improve the country’s economy as promised by its young leader, Kim Jong-un.

In spite of their repeated clarification that their nuclear system was really created in response to the multiple nuclear threats made on them by the U.S. in many critical international crisis occasions, thus, it is of defensive in nature, for which they use the term “Nuclear Deterrence” against U.S., therefore, it is not a weapons system against its neighbors; South Korea, Japan, China and Russia, two of whom are already nuclear powers themselves, or for that matter any other countries of the world, regardless, the UNSC has adopted its Resolution #2270 readily under U.S. leadership.

The South Korea under Park Geun-hye regime also took a series of harsh measures against the North including closing of its Gaesung Joint Industrial Complex; re-opening of its cross-border propaganda broadcasting; and her public statement announcing the termination of her so called, “Trust-Politick Policy”; and the initiation of talks with U.S. on the possibility of establishing a U.S. anti-missile system called THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) in South Korea, which actually represents a missile defense system aimed at compromising Chinese missile capabilities. It is most obvious that any missile from the North towards the South, if ever comes, will not be the high altitude variety.

However, the most critical and dangerous event is the provocation against North Korea by the joint U.S.-South Korea military maneuver that began six days after the adoption of the UNSC Resolution, called “Key Resolve-Foal Eagle” in which 15,000 U.S. and 300,000 South Korean military participate in practicing invading North Korea and this time, especially, conducting a special force practice eliminating the North Korean leader, called “Decapitation Operation” Naturally the immediate response by the North was the placement of ground to ground missile systems at its west coast and the placement of a large number of long range artillery aimed at South Korea and a threat to decimate the Blue House, the Park Geun-hye’s official residence.

Needless to say, currently, the degree of tension surrounding the peninsula is at all-time high, and due to its geopolitical location, it will also endanger the entire surrounding countries of the Northeast Asia.

As one takes a look at the situation from a historical perspective, beginning from the end of the WWII in 1945, and the Korean War (1950-1953), it becomes obvious that the key to the fundamental resolution of the international conflict in the peninsula is in the hand of the United States. The division of Korea at the end of the WWII, the start of cold war, followed by the Korean War, a war of proxy between the two super powers, led to the over 70 years long division of Korea, lasting to this date and the current dangerous crisis in the Korean peninsula. Therefore, it becomes clear retrospectively, that the key mistake was made in 1953, when the Armistice Treaty was signed at Panmunjom by the war parties, with a clear understanding that it would be replaced by a Peace Treaty between the U.S. and DPRK to be signed in three months time at a meeting to be held at Geneva. The Geneva meeting was indeed held and North Korea came prepared to establish a peaceful relationship with the U.S., but it was the U.S. that balked at the promise and left the meeting. Obviously, retrospectively, it was a tragic mistake made by the U.S. that led to the current crisis in the Northeast Asia. However, it is a mistake that can be corrected now, even after near 70 years of time span. DPRK has on many occasions expressed their desire to negotiate to achieve the deal, even as late as at the beginning of the current crisis.

The emergence of a nuclear North Korea is a clear demonstration of the resounding failure of the U.S.’s North Korea policy. In the past 63 years since the end of the war, there had been many conflicts between the two countries, some trivial and others serious, and in every occasion, U.S. had either overtly or surreptitiously threatened North Korea with the use of its nuclear weapons. In some occasions, it actually flew its bombers loaded with nuclear bombs heading towards the Pyongyang. Furthermore, against the agreement in the armistice treaty of 1953, they stationed a large number of various nuclear weapons in their military bases in South Korea, with obvious threat to DPRK. Therefore, it is natural for the North Korea to begin to consider arming themselves with their own nuclear weapons, to serve as a defensive countermeasure; the “Nuclear Deterrence”.

The first U.S. attempt to deter the North Korea from arming itself with nuclear weapon system was a reasonable, well balanced and a diplomatic success; it was called the Agreed Frame-work of 1994, signed in Geneva between the two countries during late part of the Clinton administration. Unfortunately, however, it was crudely and roughly nullified by the succeeding U.S. administration led by George Bush who after the 9-11, infamously defined the North Korea as one of the countries of so called “Axis of Evil” following which, naturally the DPRK had begun nuclearizing its defense system, with surprising rapidity and marked success.

This was followed by an international attempt to reverse the trend called “Six-Party Talks” that lasted many years marked by a series of ups and downs but with an eventual failure at the end.

At this time of extreme tension, unprecedentedly heightened possibility of calamitous and obviously tragic nuclear war in Korean peninsula, that will also involve the entire Northeast Asia, it is important to review the fundamental causes of the failure of the U.S.’s North Korea Policy.

Firstly, in almost all the negotiations with North Korea there was fundamental lack of trust and respect for the North Koreans by the U.S. authority and negotiators. Everything agreed needs to be verified, certified, inspected, and conditional. Any agreement, concession was viewed with suspicion and disbelief and any request for modification of agreement was quickly and coldly rejected and viewed as “shifting of goal-post during the game”. To some extent, sometimes, there were even a measure of disrespect and down-grading that appeared to be based on ethnic discrimination. Abandonment of the Agreed Frame-Work of 1994 and noncompliance of the important promises contained in the agreement were done with such nonchalance, without regret, by the U.S. government at the time.

Any and every announcements of achievements by North Korea, such as the first successful nuclear testing, development of their missile system, placement of their first orbital satellite, submarine launching of ballistic missile, miniaturization of their nuclear devises, and most recently the successful testing of their hydrogen bomb, were initially reported as being possible false and fake, downgrading the ability of North Korea and its people.

Secondly, there had been and it still exists to this date, the U.S. conviction and expectation that the country of DPRK will “Collapse” sooner or later and any promises or commitments made from either side will become nullified, thus any agreement made with an entity that will become non-existent in future, can never be a firm international treaty.

Thirdly, the perception of the U.S. policy makers that the country of North Korea is surrounded by so called “Big Four”, China, Japan, Russia and the U.S., thus the pressure and influence by these superpowers will determine the long term direction and the fate of the entity on the peninsula, whatever that may be, regardless of the agreement between the U.S. and the North Korea, reflecting the ignorance of U.S. policy makers of the four thousand-year old history of the people of Korea tenaciously sustained, and surviving on the peninsula.

Fourthly, any resolution on issues between U.S. and DPRK will eventually lead to improved South and North relationship in Korea and perhaps leading to the unification of the peninsula and the unified entity will not only not need any U.S. presence but also it may become closer to its geographically closer big power, the China, the country the U.S. is looking at with a guarded sense of suspicion. In other words, the loss of military bases in and near South Korea, as well as a loss of a faithful ally that may come from the Peace Treaty. We have to remember that the U.S. has the war time military control over South Korea. Without the possibility of a war, there wouldn’t be a U.S. control.

The peace in Northeast Asia is an absolute requirement for which the two involved countries must take actions. The current dark cloud and extreme tension must be dissolved as soon as possible, this time with a permanent resolution that both sides will accept, cherish and respect. To achieve this, there is no alternative but a bilateral negotiation between the United States and the People’s Republic of Korea toward the goal of the Peace Treaty that had been promised in the Panmunjom accord of 1953.

The negotiations must be based on the mutual trust and respect, especially by the U.S. It must accept the fact that DPRK is here to stay. It is an entity that withstood near 70 years of embargos and sanctions, developed into a firm military power with 1.2 million armed forces with nuclear weapons system with proven delivery modalities. It is a country with 25 million people with GDP of at least 32 billion US$, having diplomatic relations with 150 countries of the world, and with a socialist political ideology that maybe uniquely idiosyncratic to the Western eyes but supported by the absolute majority of the people, who are aware of their isolation from the world but harboring the perception that it is due to its door being locked from outside, embargos and sanctions, imposed mostly by the U.S.

The negotiation for the peace treaty between any countries does not begin with any preconditions. The country of North Korea is a nuclear power. The fact is woven into their constitution, and the weapons delivery capabilities have been proven clearly. Furthermore, under the repetitive external threat in the past, it is the “Nuclear Deterrence” that firmly guarantees the national security of the country. In other words, denuclearization will never be the prerequisite for the negotiation toward the Peace Treaty between the U.S. and DPRK. There is no need to remind the people of North Korea, the tragedies befallen on the countries of Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc. To them, it is the clear “Writings on the Wall”; their nuclear capabilities are not negotiable.

The Peace Treaty negotiation is strictly bilateral. Ostensibly to the Western observers, China is a powerful next door neighbor but even a casual study of the history between the two countries in the past four thousand years can reveal the fact that the China has little meaningful influence over Korea, both in North and South. In ancient times, a significant part of China including Manchuria was a part of the Korean territory. When the Chinese leader recently commented on the realities of nuclear North Korea, stating that China would not tolerate a nuclear neighbor, most Koreans responded with a chuckle, and reminded him that Koreans have tolerated it nuclear neighbor, the China, over the last 60 years!

Finally, the U.S. must realize that the fruitful negotiation leading to the Peace Treaty between the two countries, and thus the emergence of a strong, stable and, hopefully the unified Korea in the peninsula could be a benefit to the future of the U.S. in the Northeast Asia. Regardless of the current animosity between the two Koreas, and 70 years’ history of division of the peninsula, Korea is a one country, ethnically, historically, culturally and language-wise. There is absolutely no doubt that when the peace comes to the peninsula, with U.S.-DPRK Peace Treaty as the first leading step, it will eventually lead to the emergence of a single country, whatever it is called and whatever the politico-economical ideology it will adopt.

It will be a country with 70 million people, ethnically homogeneous, and well educated, and at the edge of high-tech orientation. The land is small but rich with mineral resources in North, wedded to the high-tech industry of the South, which in itself, even today enjoys the 11th in the world in its size of the GDP. An estimate a few years ago, made by a Wall Street economist specializing “Future Economy” made an extensive study and had published a conclusion that if the peace comes and two Koreas coalesce, the combined economic output will overtake that of the Japan by the year 2050.

This high-tech nation will however maintain its national defense, even at a higher level than now, with a high-tech land force of about a million, a flotilla of ocean going, sea navy, a strong air-space force and above all, the nuclear force permanently based in the middle of the peninsula controlled jointly by both Koreas as a “Nuclear Deterrence”

In other words, Korea will not be surrounded by the four big powers, but it will become one of the five big powers in the area.

By playing a friendly, constructive initial role developing the Peace Treaty, the U.S. will become a significant ally of the resulting entity, with whom, and through whom, it can also become a significant and respectable partner of the countries in the Northeast Asia, China, Japan and Russia, politically, economically and culturally. In other words, realization of the true Asia Pivot Policy.

Again, “Writings are on the Wall”

End

Moon J. Pak, M.D., Ph.D.

Senior Vice-President, Korean American National Coordinating Council (KANCC)

Chairman, US-DPRK Medical Science Exchange Committee (UDMEDEX)

mjpak1000@yahoo.com 248-894-3064